The US Election and Financial Markets

Explore the intricate relationship between US Presidential elections and their influence on the global financial markets.

How will the 2024 election affect the market?

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  • Of the past six administrations, the dollar performed best under President Clinton, gaining 19.61% in value.*
  • The dollar performed worst under President W. Bush, losing 22.00% in value.*
  • In aggregate across all Republican terms, the dollar lost -36.17% in value while gaining 54.37% while under Democrat leadership*

*tradingview.com 01/20/1989 - 05/28/2024. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

How do previous presidencies compare?

Covering the last six administrations, we collected 976 data points to find out.

Non-Farm Payroll

With the buoyancy of the labor market often used to judge the health of an economy, what did job openings look like across the past six administrations?

  • Discounting the effect of various economic events, Democrats created more jobs than Republicans*
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*https://uk.investing.com, as of 05/20/2024. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gross Domestic Product

Positioned as the ultimate measure of economic productivity, how was gross domestic product affected by each president, respectively?

  • To-date, President Biden boasts the highest average GDP gain*
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*Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), as of 05/20/2024. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inflation rate

With inflation intrinsically linked to monetary policy, how well has each president kept inflation at the target 2% historically?

  • While in office, President Trump kept inflation closest to the US target of 2%*
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*https://uk.investing.com, as of 05/20/2024. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Key economic metrics to follow in the US election

OANDA analyst Moheb Hanna takes you through the key economic metrics that traders should monitor on the run in to the election.

  • Despite being the worst-performing currency as of March, the Australian dollar finished 2020 as the best-performing currency, up in value by 11.64%*
  • The dollar holds the title as the worst-performing currency of 2020, down -7.66% in value across the year*
  • Between Biden’s official confirmation as victor and year end, the dollar continued to lose over 2.50% in value*

*tradingview.com. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Client Sentiment

How are other traders positioned ahead of the US Election?
Client Sentiment is a tool offered by OANDA by showing the current long vs. short bias of all open positions held by real money OANDA clients.

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EUR/USD

Net Short

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GBP/USD

Net Short

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USD/CAD

Net Short

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USD/JPY

Net Long

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

*DXY, tradingview.com. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Upcoming events

As the run in to November's election continues, here's an overview of upcoming events:

Jul 15 2024

Republican National Convention

Taking place in Milwaukee, Wisconsin from July 15-18, 2024, the Republican party will officially select its nominee for the election.

Aug 19 2024

Democrat National Convention

Held in Chicago, Illinois from August 19-22, 2024, the Democrat party will officially select its nominee for the 2024 election.

Sep 16 2024

First Presidential Debate

Taking place at Texas State University, the presidential candidates go head-to-head in a televised debate.

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